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Politics and planning 2020: What’s in store for London & the South East

With the UK now out of the European Union and Prime Minister Boris Johnson having made his latest ministerial changes within his strengthened administration we are now left with a number of questions about the course that UK politics will take over the coming years.

With a strong Government majority following December’s General Election, will 2020 see a return to something like political normality? Will there be greater certainty for investors looking at development opportunities? More political stability for the new Government to deliver on its manifesto pledges? Or more of the same as central and local government continue to struggle to address the challenges of delivering the new homes and infrastructure the UK so desperately needs, whilst also keeping its varied electorates happy?

Arguably, recent developments in Westminster - with the controversial if not unsurprising green light for the HS2 project and the unexpected resignation of former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid - suggest that the answers to these questions will not be clear cut.

As the dust starts to settle on yesterday’s Cabinet reshuffle we consider the prominent issues for politics and planning across London and the South East, identifying areas that are high up on the Government agenda.

Planning White Paper

For the new Boris Johnson Government, juggling the wide ranging post-Brexit trade deal negotiations whilst also delivering its promised (and very ambitious) domestic agenda will certainly be challenging. Government development sector pledges to improve and speed up the planning process in England are expected in the white paper which is anticipated to be published in the spring, around the time of the Budget which is due on 11 March. Among the measures that MHCLG is understood to be looking at in the white paper are:

  • Reducing pre-commencement conditions
  • Reviewing planning fees to meet local authority resourcing requirements
  • Reviewing the CPO process and permitted development rights

The Budget should also provide a clear statement of intent for the new Government’s spending priorities and approach to devolution.

Housing

There will be close scrutiny of the delivery of the Government’s promised one million new homes over the course of this parliament, particularly given the appointment of a new Minister for Housing yesterday (the 11th minister in 10 years). A key question here - not least given the potentially significant ramifications for local government - is what approach the Government takes to the Green Belt. Despite speculation that the Government may take a more radical and less dogmatic approach, this is not necessarily reflected in post-election ministerial statements that continue to press the need for protection of the Green Belt. Nor would it align with the continuing defensive stance to development in the Green Belt which is being taken by the current Mayor of London and many local authorities.

Devolution and locally-led planning

At the same time it remains to be seen how the Government will balance its stated commitments to devolution and locally-led planning with the imperatives of delivery. Will, for example, the Secretary of State at MHCLG seek to defuse the increasingly adversarial relationship with South Oxfordshire District Council resulting from moves by the new Liberal Democrat-Green administration in 2019 to withdraw and review its local plan (thereby calling into question the Government’s previously agreed 100,000 housing deal for Oxfordshire)? Whilst the current indications are that neither side appears willing to back down, should the Government continue to press for the South Oxfordshire Local Plan to be taken over by Oxfordshire County Council this could have significant ramifications for local authorities across the South East that are struggling to meet their new homes targets.

In addition to this, the Government is already facing strong calls from local government to ensure that the ‘levelling up’ agenda for the North and Midlands does not come at the expense of new infrastructure in London and sub regions across the South and East of England. Key to this debate will be the potential devolution of fundraising to local government, alongside the review of business rates.

London and South East elections

Of course strategists and spinners at Westminster will also be very aware of the impact of planning, infrastructure and funding issues on the elections taking place across London and the South East this May.

Although the elections for the London Mayor may seem to be a foregone conclusion and a race for second place (with polls from late 2019 indicating Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey holding off a strong challenge from Independent Rory Stewart), with manifestos still to be published the potential impact of the election on housing and development in the capital remains unclear. What is certain, however, is that with almost 50% of London’s boroughs falling short in their housing land supply targets (according to recent research published by Planning magazine) the pressures of land supply, density and affordability of housing remain as strong as ever. Equally the decision by MHCLG Secretary of State Robert Jenrick last month to request additional time for consideration of the London Plan will increase the political scrutiny of development in the capital into the prime campaigning season.

Beyond London the local council elections in many parts of the South East and East will prove equally fascinating:

  • With Brexit delivered but the Government’s stance on the Green Belt still somewhat unclear, will Conservatives be able to win back the seats and councils they lost in 2019, particularly in their previous strongholds in Surrey?
  • Will the Conservatives retain their dominance in Buckinghamshire when the new unitary council is formed in May and will they also control the shadow authorities being established for the two new unitary councils in Northamptonshire (which will come into full existence in 2021)?
  • Or will the Liberal Democrats and independent groups that performed so well at the polls last year continue to make inroads and consolidate, or even extend, their presence in large swathes of the South East and Eastern regions?

The Oxford-Cambridge Arc

The 2020 local elections will be of fundamental importance for the Oxford Cambridge Arc initiative, where the political challenge of supporting new transport infrastructure, in particular East West Rail (see our latest comment for more information), will be balanced by the ever-present concerns over the scale of new housing and commercial development that this new infrastructure will facilitate. In this context, the elections to the new unitary Buckinghamshire Council will be particularly interesting - how will the support for the Oxford Cambridge Arc within the outgoing Buckinghamshire County Council play out against the growing concerns within the current district councils?

For individual projects, the elections in London and the wider South East will also mean careful consideration of timings for the submission and determination of planning applications, and the impact (and potential for misuse) of purdah from later March/early April onwards.

Overall 2020 has a lot in store for the planning and development sector. Our Strategic Communications team will be following it all closely so that we are in the strongest position to advise our co-owners and clients. For more information, or to find out how we can support with your project, please get in touch with Phil Brogan or Nick Jones.

14 February 2020