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A look ahead to the local elections in Birmingham 2026

The fourth in our series on the elections taking place across England, the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd explores the turbulent political landscape across Birmingham. Assistant Consultant, Strategic Communications, Ben Shortland examines the importance of local issues as determining factors and what we might expect to see from the election results across Europe’s largest local council.

The opening months of 2026 have laid bare the political turbulence Birmingham has endured over the last four years. A vote of no confidence in the council leader John Cotton at the end of March followed a challenging budget debate in February, where Labour’s proposals initially failed to pass, as the governing party’s loss of authority and support from within started to show. Europe’s largest local council is certainly experiencing a period of instability. 

The significance of local issues in Birmingham

National trends always affect the outcome of local elections, and Sir Keir Starmer’s handling of the Peter Mandelson appointment will be fresh in voters' minds. However in Birmingham, to overlook the significance of local issues would be a mistake. The cumulative impact of years of financial strain, an effective bankruptcy, and streets piled high with uncollected rubbish bags, coupled with more recent leadership upheaval, has left deep wounds across the city that Labour is struggling to heal. 

Emerging challengers and the volume of candidates

Amid these battle scars, new challenges have emerged which are seeking to capitalise on anti-Labour sentiment amongst the electorate. Akhmed Yakoob is now a prominent voice in Birmingham politics: on the streets, online and in more traditional media too. Yakoob is leading a group of independent candidates campaigning on a pro-Palestine and pro-Kashmiri independence ticket, called the Independent Candidates Alliance (ICA). Along with Shakeel Afsar, another leading voice in the movement, they are confident of securing a major breakthrough at the upcoming all-out elections in May, despite neither of them standing as candidates themselves. Their confidence is not without merit, but the competition within inner-city wards to fill Birmingham’s likely power-vacuum is fierce. 

The sheer volume of candidates standing in some wards marks a dramatic shift in common political discourse from the last local elections in the city in 2022. Four years ago, wards averaged just over three candidates per seat. This year, that figure has doubled to over six. This shift is more pronounced in two-seat wards, where the average number of candidates has risen from seven to 12. Small Heath has 15 candidates on the ballot paper and five wards have 14 standing. This surge in candidates is not only explained by the rise of the independent movements. The Green Party has expanded its presence in Birmingham, fielding more candidates than ever before as it benefits from a growing national profile under the leadership of Zack Polanski, and following Hannah Spencer’s move to Westminster after the Gorton and Denton by-election. 

The elephant in the polling station however is Reform. Just as the party continues to lead in the national polls, so too are they likely to be the most significant force in this election. Whilst Nigel Farage has highlighted the party’s success in fielding candidates across every ward (up from just one in 2022), the campaign strategy will likely focus on wresting control of the northern and southern areas of the city from the Conservatives. 

Elsewhere, despite being the only other two parties to have previously held power in Birmingham, both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives are now confronted by the unprecedented fragmentation of Birmingham’s political landscape. Both Group Leaders face a difficult challenge to retain their own seats amidst the most crowded ballots in history, with the Liberal Democrat’s Roger Harmer up against 13 other candidates in Acocks Green and the Conservative’s Bobby Alden facing 11 opponents in Erdington. There is little time or headspace for them to conceive of post-election council leadership options when they have so much work to do just to stay in the chamber themselves. And it is this leadership which the council will inevitably need by the time the Annual General Meeting occurs in June. 

No crystal ball is required to be certain that the city stands on the cusp of significant political change. The result in Birmingham will offer a strong indication of the direction the country is likely to take over the remainder of this national electoral cycle. As Nigel Farage has put it, where the West Midlands goes, the country often follows. 

For more insights on the political situation in Birmingham ahead of or following the local elections, please contact Ben Shortland. 

30 April 2026