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What can we expect from the Senedd election?
With polling stations poised to open, the final in our series on the elections focuses on Wales and the elections to the Senedd. Associate Consultant, Strategic Communications Niall Allen explains why the results are far from certain and what this may mean for politics in Wales.
As the Welsh electorate head to the polls, the results are by no means a foregone conclusion, with a range of potential outcomes and possibilities for the future of Welsh politics.
Impacts of a new electoral system
The expansion of the Senedd from 60 to 96 members, and the scrapping of traditional constituencies in favour of larger regional ones, will see six Members of Senedd (MSs) elected in 16 constituencies across Wales. They will be elected using proportional representation and closed party lists for the first time in Wales, with voters given one vote for their preferred party. The combination of a larger Senedd and a more proportional system makes single party majority government highly unlikely, so the real interest will come in who is able to form a workable coalition or similar arrangement.
A two-horse race bringing an end to Labour’s dominance
Since the establishment of the Senedd, Welsh Labour have dominated the political landscape in Cardiff Bay, but unless pollsters are wide of the mark, 2026 will see them finish a distant third behind Plaid Cymru and Reform. Who gets the most seats is still a closely fought contest but regardless of the result, it is now looking increasingly certain that no party will win enough seats to form a government. Today the most likely plausible outcome looks like a Plaid-led coalition with support from some or all of the Green Party, Labour and the Liberal Democrats (or a combination).
Could Reform elect a First Minister?
The First Minister will be appointed by a vote in the Senedd in which a candidate needs to secure a majority. If Reform emerge as the largest party, but without a majority, then it is likely that other parties would block any attempt to appoint a Reform First Minister. With no obvious natural partners in the Senedd, it is unlikely Reform would be able to get enough votes to make this a reality. It is far more likely that smaller parties would unite behind Plaid Cymru to appoint Rhun ap Iorwerth.
A defining moment for devolution
More than 25 years after the establishment of the Senedd, the 2026 election represents a significant milestone in its evolution. The change in voting system and ever-shifting political landscape means Wales will have to adapt to a more proportional Senedd, with greater collaboration between parties.
Once the count is underway and potential results become clearer, we’ll be updating our clients directly as to how the outcomes will affect different policy areas. For more information on the political situation in Wales please contact Niall Allen.
6 May 2026